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Case Study
 
Improved forecasting accuracy
 
 
The idea
Redefine the forecasting process to improve promotions forecast accuracy.
 
The client
The client is one of the worlds largest food and grocery wholesaler.
 
Before

Promotions forecasting accuracy was low leading to inventory leftover or stock-out positions for promoted SKUs. Forecast error was measured at 22%-24% in the case of inventory leftover after promotions and there was a 16% chance of stock-out situations during promotions.

Promotions forecasting was a manual, highly labor intensive and specialized function. The client received electronic and manual spreadsheet transmissions detailing upcoming promotions and merchandizing activity from retailers and had to forecast demand for the items on promotion based on past history of similar promotional events and planned merchandize activity.

The primary objective was to redefine the promotions forecasting process and improve forecasting accuracy thereby realizing higher returns. To achieve this, a promotions forecasting product solution needed to be evaluated and implemented. This could utilize category specific demand forecasting models to make promotions forecasts thereby improving forecast accuracy. This, in turn, would eliminate the use of highly error prone, complex and labor intensive manual calculations using traditional Excel based macros.

The promotions forecasting solution would need to:
Forecast demand for unique promotions every week across all retailers totaling to 20,000 SKUs per week
Continually adjust forecasts, with attributes (e.g., price, placement etc.) for forecast of 300 to 500 SKUs changing constantly prior to the launch of the promotion
Improve promotions forecasting accuracy so as to improve customer (retailer) service level
Reduce inventory leftover by over-forecast of promotions
Reduce stock-out positions caused by under-forecast of promotions

The client would also expect a significant reduction in leftover inventory which accounts for nearly USD 100 million in inventory investment per week.

 
How Wipro helped

Team Wipro, together with the client identified several areas for improving the forecasting process and identified the need to deploy a promotions forecasting solution.

As a first step, Wipro developed a highly focused request for proposal based on technical and business requirements very specific to promotions forecasting. Wipro used its time tested and proven product evaluation methodology to select the promotions forecasting solution.

The benefits of using Wipro's product evaluation methodology were:

Process improvement
Wipro suggested several areas for improving the process of promotions forecasting and introduced the need for implementing a promotions forecasting solution to improve forecasting accuracy

Compressed product evaluation time
The 'request for proposal' creation time was compressed by over 50% from an industry average of 12-16 weeks to 4 weeks owing to Wipro's past industry experience and reusable product evaluation framework

Vendor lists
In-depth industry knowledge of Wipro helped the client arrive at vendor long-lists and subsequent shortlists rapidly.

RFP Evaluation
Client was able to leverage Wipro's evaluation and implementation experience for similar packaged solutions
Wipro brought in objectivity in the evaluation of the RFP responses based on ranking and weights
Wipro assisted in scoring of vendor responses and collating them for comparing and contrasting features offered by various product solutions

Developing recommendation
Wipro developed a detailed solution recommendation to Steering Committee using SWOT analysis of all vendors

 

 
After
Package Implementation
Phased implementation by customer and category over 18 months
Understanding of retailer data provisioning
Interface development for data exchange
More accurate promotions forecasts
Higher customer service levels (i.e., case fill rates)
Fewer under-forecasted events resulting in lower lost sales
Less leftover inventory and lower inventory overall
Less cash tied up in the business (i.e., higher ROI)

Warehouse productivity
Less congestion at warehouse receiving docks
Lower lift operator travel time for put-away and let-down which improved Distribution Center efficiency
More warehouse space for investment buying
Less re-scheduling of inbound loads
More warehouse capacity for growth

Employee productivity
Enhanced efficiency and capability for promotions forecasters
 
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